Following more than two years of rate hikes and holds, the Bank of Canada has finally announced today that it is lowering the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points from 5% to 4.75%. This decision comes after inflation slowed to 2.7% in April, its lowest rate in three years. This will not only bring relief to variable-rate mortgage holders but also to those with an upcoming mortgage renewal. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), around 2.2 million Canadian households will come up for mortgage renewal in 2024 and 2025.
“The sustained higher interest rates have challenged affordability for many homeowners and prospective buyers over the past two years. However, with rates now trending down there is potential for renewed growth and activity in the real estate market,” explains Carrie Lysenko, Zoocasa CEO. “As market activity increases, staying updated on property availability in their desired location, getting pre-approvals in place and acting swiftly can help buyers navigate the evolving landscape”.
Rate Cuts to Boost Buyer Interest
The Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate has remained at 5% for nearly 11 months, causing many would-be buyers to retreat to the sidelines and wait for lower interest rates. Now that rates have dropped, increased buyer confidence is expected to stimulate the market, leading to a rise in home sales and home prices.
Last month, conditions were balanced or favouring buyers in several major markets, including Toronto and Vancouver, but with competition anticipated to increase, these markets may shift to tighter conditions. For buyers, this means they may have to move at a faster pace than they were previously used to, while for sellers, this could present a good opportunity for quicker sales. Month-over-month home sales have already picked up quite a bit, with national sales up 14.5% from March to April and 10.1% year-over-year.
Despite the optimism surrounding the first rate cut in four years, its immediate impact on the summer real estate market remains uncertain. “It will be interesting to see if heat returns to the real estate market across the country or perhaps a quarter-point cut will not be enough to fuel the fire,” says James Laird, Co-CEO of Ratehub.ca and President of CanWise mortgage lender.
Expect a Rise in Home Prices
Since March 2022, when the Bank of Canada first started hiking interest rates, home prices in nearly every major market have dropped considerably. In Toronto, the average home price dropped by 14.9% since February 2022, just before the first rate cut, while in Kitchener-Waterloo and London & St. Thomas, the average price dropped by over 20%.
Lower mortgage rates may bring a reversal to this trend, especially if more buyers do jump back into the market. For instance, in late 2020 and early 2021, when borrowing costs were at their lowest, home prices skyrocketed. It wasn’t until the overnight lending rate started to climb that home price growth began to slow down.
Anticipation for rate cuts has been building since the beginning of the year, with benchmark home price growth exceeding 4% from January to April in the majority of markets, including Calgary, Toronto, and Hamilton-Burlington. Buyers preparing to enter the market this summer should work closely with a qualified real estate agent in order to make informed decisions amid increased competition. Do you have questions about the recent rate drop or conditions?
I am here to help, feel free to reach out and I look forward to a coffee or a chat about your property situation.
